Wednesday, 21 August 2019 05:09

Pinsonat on Governor's race: "Can't beat somebody with nobody"

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A year and a half ago, according to a Bernie Pinsonat--Southern Media Opinion Research poll, John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, polled at a whopping 65 percent. Today, Pinsonat believes Edwards polls in the low 50’s.

Edwards is up for re-election against major candidates such as Congressman Ralph Abraham and multi-millionaire Eddie Rispone.

So, what gives? The Louisiana budget crises, for now, is a thing of the past. The last legislative session this spring was boring, meaning, it was successful. A storm just slammed Louisiana which emergencies normally help a governor show leadership during a crises. So, why would there be a drop of perhaps fifteen percent since last year?

 Based upon the interview with Pinsonat, the answer is simple. Edwards is a Democrat. His two major opponents are Republicans. Louisiana is as red of a state as they come.  It’s election time and its time for the cows to come home.  Retaking the 4 floor of the Capitol and the Governor’s mansion is mission critical #1 for the Louisiana GOP.

But, as Pinsonat states, “you can't beat somebody with nobody”.

Of course, that’s true.  Yet, we’re in August and have not even cooked our Labor Day hot dogs and hamburgers. The Louisiana voters are still in the “Ralph and Eddie, who’s dat” stage.  Right now, Edwards’s main opponent appears to be another unknown, “the undecideds”. With advertising, which still has not gone into full force and more controversial news articles, rallies and statewide debates, the undecided’s will weaken, and one or both of the two Republican candidates will strengthen. In short, the nobody’s are certainly likely to somebody’s, and fast.

Last week, Bernie Pinsonat and I discussed the upcoming gubernatorial race. Below is a transcript of part two. Here is the initial segment which ended with the pollster stating straight out-- that a big hit against John Bel Edwards is the fact that he has a “demo tag on him”

So, we pick up with the interview with Pinsonat stating:  

But so but normally, Jindal was never below 55-57 right percent for reelection. Mike Foster was in the 60s, when he ran for election. We all know what Blanco was, knew Blanco was severely underwater, and mid 30s for reelection. So those of the stats we have to look at. So Jindal and Foster, you know, we're never in any trouble for reelection. But, of course, they were republicans and they had, they ended up with minor  opposition. But the reason why they ended up with minor opposition was because they were so popular when they ran for election and John Bel can say he's, he's--

Now one of the things that is interesting. And everybody use my poll two years ago, I showed you that 65% of popular job performance, which was an incredibly good number.  A lot of people wrote about it. But if you look at those numbers today, you know, he's in the low 50s. for popularity.  He got probably just got  a little bump, but that was a nobody merely mentioned that. But why Pinsonat poll show him in the mid 60s, and all of a sudden, he down into the, to the low 50s a year -and a-half later. So the sessions took its toll on him, being a Republican, of the republican lot of Republicans coming back home white Republicans. So he's had some serious erosion, at least 10 points in a year and a half with his job performance, but it still doesn't mean he's not gonna get reelected, because you know, you can't beat somebody with nobody. Is those two guys aren't performing maximum their base of white republicans That plus 15% of more supporting him,  John Bel Edwards is right now they've got they've got to beat him.   So, you know, he, you know, he has the advantage right now, it's up to them to change to change that advantage. But there's been no poll showing that he's there. The two of them are over 50%.

Okay, you saying there's no poll that shows the two of them are over? 50%? So there's a lot of uncertainty.

Yeah, there, there there, you know,  Eddie, a month and a half ago, nobody knew him.  And he responded was probably eight or 9%, where Ralph Abrham has all of North Louisiana to himself and why he's choosing, the 20s or so if you, if you five him even 30%, you give Eddie 10%, that's 40, so they wouldn't cause a runoff. And that's the name of the game, they got to be able to cause--they've got a combination, they need each other, they need both of them to do well. Both of them have their total number together has to be over 50% or John Bel Edwards is going to be reelected. And that's where we are today, and that's what we're all watching  io see what happens. And, you know, again, after Labor Day, the governor's race title literally starts picking up. Qualifying, we picked up a little bit, it'll pick up after Labor Day, and by the second week of September, you know, the race will really be in high gear.

Okay, so one last question in that is that earlier today, you said that you're basically the two Republicans, obviously have got to get over 50% combined. So that means they can they should not attack one another? Because that's going to reduce the probabilities that their supporters are going to actually go out and vote for their their their candidate, am I correct?

Oh, absolutely. I mean, there's no way. If one of them was at 50% and he wanted to make sure that he won in the primary, you may attack other republican but at the present time, you really want to--candidates attack each other in the runoff, or if it's a two person race, because it's you know, it's do or die that race, but when you have multiple candidates, generally, as we saw with Vitter, and I mean, this is politics, 101--when one candidate attacks another candidate, and they're more than the three or four candidates in the race. The person that's not being attacked generally goes up, the person doing the attacking generally gets hurt somewhat, and the person he's attacking may get hurt a lot. So there was a classic scenario we watched unfold in 2016, where David started attacking his fellow Republicans, and they started attacking him back in between the three them, hey did, they all did very poorly. And they literally and Vitter, in fact caused John Bel Edwards to walk into to the governor's mansion in the runoff. With with David Vitter being of being in no consequence.  For a republican to do as poorly as he did., it was it, you know, it was shocking to see what transpired,wheere three republicans destroyed each other and elected  john Bel Edwards. He just sat down the whole time and watch them. I mean, if you painted a scenario that was favorable to ohn Bel Edwards, you couldn't dream up something like want a card, pull it in a political scenario, that there's no way John Bel Edwards would have been Angelle.  There's no way he would have beat Jay Dardenne, and Vitter would have been without all the negative stuff.

Most people thought he (Vitter) would have been him (Edwards). But Vitter turned out to be probably the least likely to beat of the three. But most of us thought he would probably struggle, but he would win because he's a republican. And and so all of the possible scenarios, you can think of other republicans all turn sour. And it was just it was a it was a classic and it ought to be studied. In every political class in Louisiana, that race will go down and really weird. Fundamentally, it reinforced what we all knew--that when there's multiple candidates and two and two of them engage in a vicious campaign against each other, generally not that neither of those candidates do well, and the person who's not being attacked or sitting on the sidelines does well, not because of anything that he or she has done she has done because his opponents basically put him in the driver's seat to win the election.

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