Monday, 23 September 2019 05:14

Poll: Rispone overtakes Abraham, Edwards still below 50% in Louisiana governor's race Featured

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If there is anything to say about this Louisiana governor's race polls this year, they appear to be rather consistent compared to prior years in terms of the potential ceiling for Governor John Bel Edwards.  The surveys that I have seen have put Edwards close to "but no cigar" getting the necessary 50% plus one vote to avoid what would likely be a brutal contest runoff.

 

In a poll released today by John Couvillon of JMC Analytics and Polling, Edwards reaches 46% but after some of the 12% undecided votes are allocated, the incumbent only collects 48% of the vote.   A recent poll by Bernie Pinsonat showed Edwards at 47% without the undecided vote allocated. 

The numbers for the Pinsonat poll had Edwards at 47%,  Abraham at  24%, Rispone at 15% with 14% undecided.

The one remarkable difference in the JMC survey notes that the non-politician businessman Rispone has climbed into the second place spot with 21% and with Abraham now at 18%.

Here were the trial heat reslts from Pinsonat's poll, released on September 11th.

    Ralph Abraham        24% 

     John Bel Edwards    47% 

     Eddie Rispone          16% 

     Undecided               14%  

 The Couvillon poll also showed the Louisiana insurance commissioner election somewhat surprisingly tight. Longtime commissioner John Donelon with only a two point percentage over fellow Republican Tim Temple, 22 to 20. The Pinsonat poll indicated that Donelon had a fifteen point advantage, 35 to 20. Both polls represent a substantial undecided vote, perhaps an interesting finding given the fact that Donelon has held the seat since 2006.

Here is the narrative from John Couvillon describing his poll results. Make sure to click the link below to obtain more of the poll statistics. 

Louisiana is a Southern state that remained faithful to the Democratic Party longer than any other state in the region except possibly Arkansas. However, there has been an unmistakable and steady movement over the last decade to the Republicans, to the point that now there are Republican majorities nearly across the board (in other words, Republican majorities in both houses of the Legislature, nearly all statewide offices are held by Republicans, the Supreme Court, Public Service Commission, and the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education). Even in the 2018 Democratic landslide, Louisiana remained staunchly Republican: the partisan vote in Congressional races (all six districts were contested) was 57-38% Republican.

There is a notable exception to the increasing Republican dominance: Democrats recaptured the Governorship in 2015 due to a combination of two things: (1) Republican infighting in the primary prevented any kind of coalescing of the Republican vote in the runoff, and (2) a well run campaign from Democrat John Bel Edwards that proactively inoculated itself against attempts to portray him as a liberal by noting his conservative stances on abortion and gun rights, and by emphasizing his military background.

Now that Governor Edwards is running for re-election against two major Republican candidates (Congressman Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone), will partisan voting patterns reassert themselves and doom his re-election, or does he still have some affirmative strength despite going through numerous legislative special sessions to get a budget passed ?

JMC was engaged to poll this race by the Louisiana Association of Health Plans (LAHP), and these are the takeaways from the poll (which can be found here):

  1. Governor Edwards has benefitted in the last week from blacks and white Democrats’ “coming home”;
  2. Also for Governor Edwards, he has held his own electorally among Republicans and white Independents;
  3. Businessman Eddie Rispone’s ads/attacks on Abraham/debate performance last Thursday night have (in total) enabled him to surge in the race to (for the first time) pass up Congressman Ralph Abraham due to movement among Republicans and white Independents.

Bayoubuzz Note: Here are the quick results

 

Question 1: If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you support? (Party affiliations of candidates mentioned)

 Edwards (Dem) 46%

 Rispone (Rep) 21%

Abraham (Rep) 18%

Dantzler (Dem) 2%

 Landrieu (Ind) 1%

 Landry (Rep) >1%

Question 2: (Only if “undecided” selected for previous question) Given that you are undecided, which candidate are you leaning towards supporting? (Party affiliations of candidates mentioned)

Edwards (Dem) 48%

Rispone (Rep) 22%

Abraham (Rep) 20%

Dantzler (Dem) 2%

Landrieu (Ind) 1%

Landry (Rep) 1%

Undecided 7%

Question 3: If the election for Insurance Commissioner were held today, which candidate would you support? (Note: both candidates are Republicans, so party affiliation was not mentioned)

 Donelon (Rep) 22%

Temple (Rep) 20%

Undecided 58%

 

Read 1669 times Last modified on Monday, 23 September 2019 16:34
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