We’ve been told that Jon Bel Edwards is spiking, Vitter falling, because the polls says they are.
We’ve been told that this poll is reliable and that poll isn’t; That this poll says that and that poll, says this.
The truth, however, is, the polls might be correct in terms of being a snapshot in time, but the bottom line, is turnout. Good old-fashion getting the folks to the polls.
What we do know is the Democrats cannot rely upon their getting the troops out to vote. We know that David Vitter has a strong and committed 20 to 25%, again, based upon all the polls.
We know that voters are confused whether backing Dardenne or Angelle will make any difference in the ultimate outcome although, a recent poll claims that Vitter, Dardenne and Angelle are in a tight finish.
What we don’t know is whether the recent flurry of scandal-related articles will hurt David Vitter’s prospects at all. According to one local political observer, conservative radio talk show host, Jeff Crouere, a segment of his callers are going to back Vitter regardless as to what is being said about him at this time. They want a conservative and he’s their man.
How do I see it?
Vitter and Edwards with Dardenne and Angelle in the low teens. Without any doubt, Vitter has the best GOTV machine, well-oiled and financed. Ultimately, that's what counts.
If Edwards is in the runoff and if he does not have a strong showing, he will have a very tough time raising money for the runoff, regardless as to who he might be fighting. One factor will be whether Angelle and/or Dardenne endorse one of the contenders, or not.
Am I willing to bet on any of this?
Besides, I don’t bet.