In his email Faucheux noted that the 2 point lead “average is based mostly on interviews conducted BEFORE the second presidential debate. Romney leads in two polls (+6 and +1) and Obama is ahead in one (+2).
In an historical comparison, Faucheux noted that at this time in the elections of the past, Reagan approval was a lofty 58% and Jimmy Carter’s approval was a lowly 31%.
How close was these approval ranking?
Looking at only two, Reagan won the 1984 election with 58.8% to Walter Mondale's 40.6%. Mondale received a mere 13 electoral college votes only capturing the state of Michigan and the District of Columbia.
In 1980, Reagan took 57% of the vote with President Jimmy Carter only receiving 41% and third-party candidate John Anderson taking 6.6%.
YOUR DAILY POLLING UPDATE
OBAMA APPROVAL: CLARUS AVERAGE 49%
(no change from yesterday; down 1 from a week ago)
Reagan at this point: 58%
Clinton at this point: 54%
Bush 43 at this point: 51%
Bush 41 at this point: 34%
Carter at this point: 31%
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONWIDE: CLARUS AVERAGE*
Romney over Obama +2
Note: This average is based mostly on interviews conducted BEFORE the second presidential debate. Romney leads in two polls (+6 and +1) and Obama is ahead in one (+2).
PRESIDENT: BY STATE**
Wisconsin: Obama over Romney +1
Ohio: Obama over Romney (a) +1, (b) +3
Nevada: Obama over Romney +3
Florida: Obama over Romney +3
New Jersey (R poll): Obama over Romney +7
Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson (R) over Tammy Baldwin (D) +1
Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel (R) +5 Nevada average: Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Shelley Berkley (D) +7
U.S. SENATE: POLLING STATUS REPORT
The following party margins are based on recent polling averages: (DO = open Democratic seat, RO = open Republican seat, DI = Democratic incumbent, RI = Republican incumbent).
North Dakota (DO) EVEN
Montana (DI) D+1
Massachusetts (RI) D+2
Wisconsin (DO) D+2
Indiana (RO) R+2
Virginia (DO) D+2
Connecticut (DO) D+2
Arizona (RO) D+3
Pennsylvania (DI) D+5
Florida (DI) D+5
Ohio (DI) D+6
Missouri (DI) D+6
Nevada (RI) R+7
New Mexico (DO) D+11
Michigan (DI) D+12
Hawaii (DO) D+16
Florida-22: Lois Frankel (D) over Adam Hasner (R) +3
New Mexico-1: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Janice Arnold-Jones (R)
New Mexico-2: Rep. Steve Pearce (R) over Evelyn Madrid Erhard (D) +24
New Mexico-3: Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) over Jeff Byrd (R) +24
Presidential job rating average of the three most recently reported
Historic comparisons based on nearest chronological data points from
* Average based on three most recently released nationwide polls:
Rasmussen, Gallup, IBD/TIPP.
** PRESIDENTIAL: WI: Marquette Univ.; OH: (a) Rasmussen, (b)
SurveyUSA; NV: Rasmussen; FL: JZ Analytics/Newsmax; NJ: Neighborhood
*** SENATE: WI: Marquette Univ.; OH: SurveyUSA: NV: LVRJ/SurveyUSA,
**** U.S. HOUSE: FL: PPP(D); NM-1,2,3: Albuquerque Journal
Clarus Research Group is a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C., specializing in survey research for businesses,
associations, nonprofits and media organizations. For more information, contact Dr. Faucheux at [email protected] or go to
our website at www.ClarusRG.com. Clarus Research Group cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.