In his email Faucheux noted that the 2 point lead “average is based mostly on interviews conducted BEFORE the second presidential debate. Romney leads in two polls (+6 and +1) and Obama is ahead in one (+2).

In an historical comparison, Faucheux noted that at this time in the elections of the past, Reagan approval was a lofty 58% and Jimmy Carter’s approval was a lowly 31%.

How close was these approval ranking?

Looking at only two, Reagan won the 1984 election with 58.8% to Walter Mondale's 40.6%.  Mondale received a mere 13 electoral college votes only capturing the state of Michigan and the District of Columbia.

 In 1980, Reagan took 57% of the vote with President Jimmy Carter only receiving 41% and third-party candidate John Anderson taking 6.6%.

YOUR DAILY POLLING UPDATE

OBAMA APPROVAL: CLARUS AVERAGE 49%

(no change from yesterday; down 1 from a week ago)

HISTORIC COMPARISONS

Reagan at this point: 58%

Clinton at this point: 54%

Bush 43 at this point: 51%

Bush 41 at this point: 34%

Carter at this point: 31%

PRESIDENTIAL NATIONWIDE: CLARUS AVERAGE*

Romney over Obama +2

Note: This average is based mostly on interviews conducted BEFORE the second presidential debate. Romney leads in two polls (+6 and +1) and Obama is ahead in one (+2).

PRESIDENT: BY STATE**

Wisconsin: Obama over Romney +1

Ohio: Obama over Romney (a) +1, (b) +3

Nevada: Obama over Romney +3

Florida: Obama over Romney +3

New Jersey (R poll): Obama over Romney +7

U.S. SENATE***

Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson (R) over Tammy Baldwin (D) +1

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel (R) +5 Nevada average: Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Shelley Berkley (D) +7

U.S. SENATE: POLLING STATUS REPORT

The following party margins are based on recent polling averages: (DO = open Democratic seat, RO = open Republican seat, DI = Democratic incumbent, RI = Republican incumbent).

North Dakota (DO) EVEN

Montana (DI) D+1

Massachusetts (RI) D+2

Wisconsin (DO) D+2

Indiana (RO) R+2

Virginia (DO) D+2

Connecticut (DO) D+2

Arizona (RO) D+3

Pennsylvania (DI) D+5

Florida (DI) D+5

Ohio (DI) D+6

Missouri (DI) D+6

Nevada (RI) R+7

New Mexico (DO) D+11

Michigan (DI) D+12

Hawaii (DO) D+16

U.S. HOUSE****

Florida-22: Lois Frankel (D) over Adam Hasner (R) +3

New Mexico-1: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Janice Arnold-Jones (R)

+14

New Mexico-2: Rep. Steve Pearce (R) over Evelyn Madrid Erhard (D) +24

New Mexico-3: Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) over Jeff Byrd (R) +24

SOURCES:

Presidential job rating average of the three most recently reported

nationwide polls.

Historic comparisons based on nearest chronological data points from

Gallup surveys. 

* Average based on three most recently released nationwide polls:

Rasmussen, Gallup, IBD/TIPP.

** PRESIDENTIAL: WI: Marquette Univ.; OH: (a) Rasmussen, (b)

SurveyUSA; NV: Rasmussen; FL: JZ Analytics/Newsmax; NJ: Neighborhood

Research (R).

*** SENATE: WI: Marquette Univ.; OH: SurveyUSA: NV: LVRJ/SurveyUSA,

Rasmussen.

**** U.S. HOUSE: FL: PPP(D); NM-1,2,3: Albuquerque Journal

_____

Clarus Research Group is a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C., specializing in survey research for businesses,

associations, nonprofits and media organizations. For more information, contact Dr. Faucheux at [email protected] or go to

our website at www.ClarusRG.com. Clarus Research Group cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

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