Monday, 22 October 2012 12:39

Polls: Romney over Obama by one, Battleground states split, Democratic Senate candidates lead

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Based upon the averages of the Presidential polls today, Romney is ahead by one in the popular vote according to Ron Faucheux, President of Clarus. romney-obama-presidential-polls

Also, it appears that based upon today’s edition of Clarus’s “Lunchtime Politics”, the swing states are also very tight with Romney posting a slight lead in Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia and Missouri.

Faucheux also reports that Obama leads Romney in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland.

Clarus also shows that Democratic US Senate candidates are leading their Republican opponents in  Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Washington and New Jersey.  Republicans lead democratic party candidates in Wisconsin and North Dakota.

The results also show that Obama is doing better in job approval over foreign policy compared to the economy.  Faucheux reports  that in handling the economy: 46% approve yet 52% disapprove and handling foreign policy: 49% approve compared to 46% disapprove.  The candidates will debate tonight about foreign policy issues.



(no change from yesterday; no change from a week ago)


Romney over Obama +1

Note: There is a gigantic swing in polls today, ranging from Romney

+7 (Gallup) to Obama +6 (IBD/TIPP). Two other polls have Romney ahead

+2 (Rasmussen, Battleground) and one has a tie (NBC/WSJ).


Florida (average of 5 polls): Romney over Obama +2 Ohio (average of 4 polls): Obama over Romney +2

Iowa: Romney over Obama +1

New Hampshire (D poll): Romney over Obama +1

Wisconsin: Obama over Romney +2

Virginia: Romney over Obama +3

Pennsylvania: Obama over Romney +5

Missouri (average of 2 polls): Romney over Obama +9 New Jersey (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +15

Maryland: Obama over Romney +24


Virginia: Tim Kaine (D) over George Allen (R) +1

Wisconsin: Tommy Thompson (R) over Tammy Baldwin (D) +2 Florida average: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Connie Mack (R) +7 Ohio average: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel +7 Missouri average: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) over Todd Akin (R) +7 North Dakota: Rick Berg (R) over Heidi Heitkamp (D) +10

Washington: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) over Michael Baumgartner (R) +15 New Jersey average: Sen. Robert Menendez (D) over Joe Kyrillos (R)


U.S. HOUSE****

Minnesota-8: Rick Nolan (R) over Rep. Chip Cravaack (R) +7


Missouri (D poll): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) over Dave Spence (R) +11 North Carolina: Pat McCrory (R) over Walter Dalton (D) +11


Asked of registered voters: "If President Obama were to win reelection, would you want his second term to be a lot like his first term, would you want him to make minor adjustments and modifications, or would you want him to make major changes?

Second term should be a lot like first term  4% Should make minor modifications/ adjustments in second term  31% Should make major changes in second term  62%


Handling the economy: 46% approve / 52% disapprove Handling foreign policy: 49% approve / 46% disapprove


Romney: Definitely 84%, Probably 10%, Just leaning 6%

Obama: Definitely 82%, Probably 9%, Just leaning 8%


Presidential job rating average of the three most recently reported nationwide polls.

* Average based on five most recently released nationwide polls:

Rasmussen, Gallup, IBD/TIPP, NBC/WSJ, Battleground.

** PRESIDENTIAL: FL: (a) PPP(D), (b) CNN/ORC, (c) FOX, (d), Rasmussen, (e) SurveyUSA; OH: Gravis, (b) PPP(D), (c) FOX, (d) Quinnipiac/CBS; IA: PPP(D); NH: PPP(D); WI: Rasmussen; VA: Rasmussen;

MO: (a) PPP(D), (b) Rasmussen; PA: Muhlenberg;  New Jersey: (a) SurveyUSA, (b) Richard Stockton Col.; MD: Washington Post.

*** SENATE: VA: Rasmussen; WI: Rasmussen; FL: Rasmussen, SurveyUSA;

OH: PPP(D), CBS/Quinnipiac; MO: PPP(D), Rasmussen; ND: Forum/Essman;

WA: Rasmussen; NJ: SurveyUSA, Richard Stockton Col.

**** U.S. HOUSE: FMN-8: Star Tribune.

# GOVERNOR: MO: PPP(D); NC: Rasmussen.

## NBC/WSJ poll.


Clarus Research Group is a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C., specializing in survey research for businesses, associations, nonprofits and media organizations. For more information, contact Dr. Faucheux at [email protected] or go to our website at

Clarus Research Group cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

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