Sunday, 04 November 2012 19:19

Polls: Obama ahead in battleground, Romney ties in popular vote, Dems up in U.S. Senate

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romney obama debateWith US Election Day now only one full day away, based upon the numbers supplied by Ron Faucheux of Clarus, President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the popular vote, however, the President has slight leads over Governor Romney in some key battleground states—Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa.    Romney does lead in delegate rich Florida.  He also has a commanding lead in Indiana and Montana.  



The Democrats also lead in some of the key U.S. Senate battles. Romney is tied with Obama in New Hampshire, leads in Florida, Indiana, Montana



(no change from yesterday; no change from a week ago)


Obama and Romney EVEN

Note: This average is based on four polls, three have the race even and one (NBC/WSJ) has Obama ahead +1. We only included polls today that had interviewing periods that extended to Nov. 2.


New Hampshire: Obama and Romney EVEN

Ohio: Obama over Romney +2

Florida: Romney over Obama +2

Michigan (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +2 Pennsylvania (average of 2 polls): Obama over Romney +3

Wisconsin: Obama over Romney +3

Iowa: Obama over Romney +5

Maine: Obama over Romney +7

Washington: Obama over Romney +7

Indiana: Romney over Obama +9

Montana (average of 2 polls): Romney over Obama +10

California: Obama over Romney +15

Massachusetts: Obama over Romney +18


Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D) over Tommy Thompson (R) +3

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D) over Sen. Scott Brown (R) +4

Montana: Denny Rehberg (R) over Jon Tester (D) +4 Pennsylvania (average of 2 polls): Sen. Bob Casey (D) over Tom Smith

(R) +4

Ohio (average of 3 polls): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel

(R) +4

Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Connie Mack (R) +6 Michigan (average of 2 polls): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over Pete Hoekstra (R) +9

Washington: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) over Michael Baumgartner (R) +18

California: Sen. Diane Feinstein (D) over Elizabeth Emken (R) +19

Maine: Angus King (I) 50%, Charlie Summers (R) 36%, Cynthia Dill (D) 12%

U.S. HOUSE****

New York-24: Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R) and Dan Maffei (D) EVEN New York-27: Chris Collins (R) over Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) +1 Montana At-large: Steve Daines (R) over Kim Gillan (D) +11

Oklahoma-2: Markwayne Mullin (R) over Rob Wallace (D) +12


Washington: Jay Inslee (D) over Rob McKenna (R) +2 New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) over Ovide Lamontagne (R) +5


How voters perceive candidate ideology vs. their own:

A lot more liberal than me: Romney 8%, Obama 37% Somewhat more liberal than me Romney 16%, Obama 14% Has same views as me: Romney 27%, Obama 27% Somewhat more conservative than me Romney 16%, Obama 10% A lot more conservative than me: Romney 23%, Obama 6% No opinion: Romney 11%, Obama 8%


Presidential job rating average based on the three most recently reported nationwide polls.

* Average based on four most recently released nationwide polls:

Rasmussen, ABC/Wash., NBC/WSJ. Politico/GWU/Battleground.

** PRESIDENTIAL: NH: WMUR/UNH; OH: Columbus Dispatch; FL: Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Herald/Mason-Dixon; MI: PPP(D), Baydoun/Foster(D);

PA: PPP(D), Tribune-Review/Susquehanna; WI: PPP(D); IA: Des Moines Register; ME: Critical Insights; WA: PPP(D); IN Rasmussen; MT:

Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon; CA: Field; MA: Western NE Univ.

*** SENATE: WI: PPP(D); MA: Western NE Univ.; MT: Mason-Dixon; PA:

PPP(D), Tribune-Review/Susquehanna; OH: Columbus Dispatch, Rasmussen, NBC/WSJ/Marist; FL: TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon; MI: PPP(D), Bayoudon/Foster (D); WA: PPP(S); CA: Field; OH: Rasmussen; NBC/WSJ/Marist; ME: Critical Insights.

**** U.S. HOUSE: NY: Siena; MT: Mason-Dixon; OK: Sooner Poll.


## Gallup, Oct. 27-28


Clarus Research Group is a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C., specializing in survey research for businesses, associations, nonprofits and media organizations. For more information, contact Dr. Faucheux at [email protected] or go to our website at

Clarus Research Group cannot attest to the reliability or methodology of surveys that it does not conduct.

Copyright 2012 © Ronald A. Faucheux

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