Tuesday, 14 February 2012 18:03

Pinsonat: Behind The Louisiana Elections Background Noise

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jaydardenne_largeWhile eyes are on the Louisiana legislature session ramping up in the upcoming weeks, Louisiana elections are always on our minds.

On Monday, Bayoubuzz published the answers to questions that we asked Louisiana political analyst and pollster Bernie Pinsonat of Southern Media & Opinion Research (SMOR), entitled “Pinsonat: Screwing of the Louisiana Taxpayers”.  Today, Pinsonat respondents to our questions regarding the next statewide elections which topic is sort of a sport in this state-especially when the LSU Tigers and the New Orleans Saints are resting.

 Here are the questions regarding the seats currently held by Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Louisiana it United States Sen. Mary Landrieu:

With Governor Bobby Jindal now term-limited, what is the early talk for the next Louisiana Governor’s race which is now less than four years away?

The next governor’s race is three years away and several potential candidates are telling reporters and political hanger-on’s they are the running for governor. By the end of this year’s legislative session there will be at least eight or nine candidates. As of today we have Jay Dardenne, John Kennedy, John George, Gerald Long, Mike Strain and possibly DNR Secretary Scott Angell. There will be more potential candidates surfacing in the coming months. David Vitter is the biggest and hottest rumor out there. Getting involved in party politics and electing republicans is not unusual, getting involved in leadership of the legislature and discussing education reform sends red flags up the curiosity pole. We now have a bipartisan Senator David Vitter working with fellow Senator Barbara Boxer for the betterment of us citizens. Is this a move to soften his image for a run at governor? Senator Vitter would not necessarily be the odds-on favorite if he does run for governor. I seriously doubt Jay Dardenne is the least bit worried by the prospects of a David Vitter candidacy for governor. We can count on lots of potential candidates to surface and sink in the coming months. Starting out of the gate any handicapper would install Dardenne and Kennedy as the early favorites. Most of this early speculation is mostly background noise for now, by the end of the second legislative session this chatter will dominate politics and the last two sessions will be relegated to background noise.

Senator Mary Landrieu has had a difficult time these past couple of years due to her being a Democrat in one of the most “red” states in the United States. What are the early rumblings in terms of challengers? What are her chances of being re-elected?

Mary’s major problem (it is a big problem) is not complicated, she voted for President Obama’s health care reform legislation. I know what she will say “I did what I thought was best for my state and its citizens”. That stance is considered admirable by her followers, but this one vote is the most politically damaging vote she has ever cast. Eighty percent of all white voters were energized and passionately against this legislation. By the way – they are still passionately against health care reform today. Senator Landrieu’s popularity has re-bounded just enough to be considered positive. Put a couple million worth of TV ads reminding voters she was the vote that allowed passage of President Obama’s health care legislation to pass and her popularity will tumble downhill like a two ton boulder. I said last week in an interview if President Obama was not reelected this fall it would enhance her chances – that did not mean she would get reelected. Mary Landrieu is one the reason the majority of voters in Louisiana will not send another democrat to Washington to represent them – they do not trust democrats. A democrat will vote with President Obama when he needs their vote. A republican will not! I was attacked by republicans for predicting she would win her last two elections. Polling showed she should have won and she did. This time she is facing an anti-democrat electorate and republicans have numerous candidates who can beat her. Congressman Bill Cassidy is one of the candidates the republicans can put up and of course if Governor Jindal ran – he would be considered a cinch to defeat Senator Landrieu.

Life on Jindal’s Louisiana Higher Ed Frat House

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