Thursday, 14 October 2010 21:23

Louisiana Melancon Down By 7, Or Is Vitter Up By 16?

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While the Vitter campaign is promoting a recent poll stating that David Vitter is 16 points ahead of Charlie Melancon, the Democrats are now pushing their own poll claiming that the gap is seven points.

The Louisiana Democratic Party is distributing an The Washington Post article from The Fix that says, “The Anzalone Liszt survey, which surveyed 600 likely voters between Oct. 9 and 12, shows Vitter at 49 percent and Melancon at 42 percent. That's slightly closer than another Democratic poll -- this one paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee -- had Melancon last month.


The campaign says the poll shows Melancon closing strongly since a previous internal poll in September, when Vitter was exploiting his financial advantage to drastically outspend Melancon on the airwaves. Melancon has been on television heavily in recent weeks.


Earlier this week, Magellan revealed their poll showing that the Republican incumbent’s lead is sixteen points.


Some Melancon supporters claim the Magellan poll is a “republican pollster” and for that and other reasons, the poll is unreliable.  The Fix said the Anzalone poll is “a new poll for the Democrat's campaign.”


With now, a little more than two weeks away from election day, polls do matter for many reasons including they can impact “getting out the vote”, fundraising and support from the national parties.


We all know that polls have been very wrong in various elections since there are too many unknown factors that influence the ultimate result.


Still, we will certainly see the dueling polls song being played as each day goes by until voting ends on November 2.


Then, it will come down to which political party and which candidates are best able to get out the vote which will essentially make all of this polling debate relatively meaningless.

Update:  Here is a memo sent out by the National Republican Senatorial Commitee which it claims refutes the Melancon poll.  Question to ask: Why did the Democratics release an internal poll and why did the republicans afterwards release their own internal memo? 5:02 pm 

To: Rob Jesmer
Fr: Gene Ulm
Date: October 14, 2010
Re: Recent survey data
The following memorandum is based on a survey of 800 likely voters completed October 11-13,
2010 by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3.46%. Twenty-Five percent of the interviews were
completed among African Americans.
Key points:
• David Vitter leads Charlie Melancon 51%-28% with the third party candidates polling
four percent (cumulatively) and 14% undecided.
• David Vitter’s support is very consistent with the average on
• Among those most likely to vote, David Vitter’s lead over Charlie Melancon expands to
• To put these numbers in perspective, Vitter is within one percent of his final ‘04 vote
total in the New Orleans DMA, is matching his vote total in the Baton Rouge DMA, and
surpassing his vote total in both Shreveport and Lafayette/Lake Charles (combined).
• David Vitter’s favorable image is at 50%. (His unfavorables are only 36%).
• In contrast, Melancon’s image is upside-down by a WIDE margin (31% favorable-42%
unfavorable). Among the white voters who will decide this race, Charlie’s image is an
alarming 27% favorable - 51% unfavorable (David Vitter’s is 60% favorable - 31%
The bottom line: David Vitter is extremely well positioned to be re-elected. He holds a wide
margin over Melancon not only in this survey but every other legitimate public survey as well.
Vitter has a deep well of favorable image and re-elect strength. In contrast, Melancon’s


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