In the Fox News poll earlier this month, Cassidy led Landrieu by 13 points, 51-38 in a two-person contest. The CNN poll shows the differential to be only 3 percent.
The poll considered likely voters and another one registered analyzed registered voters.
A poll of likely voters normally favors the republicans and a poll of registered voters usually favors Democrats.
The polls indicate an significant “anyone but Mary Landrieu” sentiment evidenced by the fact that Rob Maness only received 9 percent in a three-person race, however, he ties Landrieu in a head to head contest.
Also, the key to a Landrieu victory would be to convert the registered voters inclined to vote for her to “likely voters”
In the poll of likely voters, Landrieu leads Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy 43-40 with Rob Maness, the Tea Party favorite collecting 9 percent.
In the survey of registered voters, Landrieu tops Cassidy 45-35 and Maness registered 8 percent.
If no candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote tallied during the November 4 “jungle primary”, there will be a December runoff between the two top candidates.
Cassidy leads Landrieu in that latter scenario—should a runoff be necessary:
2. If that run-off election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Mary Landrieu,
the Democrat, and Bill Cassidy, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for? (IF
UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER)
Sept. 22-25, 2014 47% 50% 3%
Landrieu 51 %
Interesting, should a runoff be between Rob Maness and Mary Landrieu, for likely voters, according to the poll, the two candidates would tie 48-48. Yet, in a one-to-one contest among registered voters, Landrieu would receive 53% to Maness 45% with 2% uncertain.
Sept. 22-25, 2014 51% 45% 4%
In Louisiana, interviews with 1,013 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on September 22-25, 2014. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Louisiana sample also includes 866 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) and 610 interviews among likely voters (plus or minus 4 percentage points). In Louisiana, 710 interviews were conducted among landline respondents and 303 interviews among cell phone respondents.