Tuesday, 30 September 2014 21:30

Louisiana US Senate Duck season; Landrieu's bells

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duckWe are approaching Louisiana migratory fowl duck season next month, but the political duck season is in full quack.


As proof, there’s a U.S. Senate race debate tonight except one candidate, who says on his commercials, he represents us, will be hiding.

The Alliance for Good Government Forum in Kenner will host the debate but “no-show” Bill Cassidy will not be there.

Nor will he be at other debates except for two on TV, perhaps. 

If this is the type of democracy we want, so be it.  If this is the type of candidate we want, shame on us.

Republicans, Democrats, Tea Party, Independent candidates who deliberately refuse to face the public and respond to questions and issues should be read the riot act by party leaders, the media and campaign contributors.

Winning at all costs makes for winning candidates but the public are losers.  We simply get what we those candidates think we deserve--not much.

Hiding from the people who want to know more about a candidate might make for great politics for those in the lead, but, it puts civics into the trash.  Not a good lesson to teach our kids, for sure.

Senator Mary Landrieu, who was criticized six years ago by this very publication for not engaging in adequate debates will be in attendance as will Tea Party candidate, Rob Maness.

Landrieu by 3?

Today, a friend of mine said, "I hear Mary Landrieu is up by three points".

My response, maybe so, but not in the current Louisiana US Senate Race, she’s not.

The CNN poll released this weekend is most telling.   

In the state in which she has served three terms, she cannot come close to fifty percent plus one, in any recent poll of likely voters.

Probably most disturbing for Landrieu supporters is the fact that Lt. Rob Maness, a person most people in Louisiana have never heard of or seen, ties Landrieu in head to head combat, 48 to 48, while Congressman Bill Cassidy bests her by two points.  In a three-person race, Landrieu has a three point lead over Cassidy with Maness far away with 9 percent.

Thus, Maness jumps from 9 percent in a three-person race to 48 percent-giant-killer.

What does this poll tell us, as almost all polls have told us now for over a year?  The election is not about Bill Cassidy or Rob Maness or anyone other than Mary Landrieu, and the real target, Barack Obama.  

Roughly fifty-percent of the Louisiana likely voters claim they are not voting for her.  Astounding.  This, in my mind means the three points are meaningless unless she were able to get close to 50, where she currently, is not.

True polls are snapshots and the real poll is election day, but when, after more than a year of polls the numbers continue to look dismal, it's time to hope that election day does not come soon.

This might not be the death knell for Landrieu.  But, with the elections, now slightly more than a month away, but the bells are beginning to take its toll on her campaign.  


From PPP, a democratic-leaning poll

Public Policy Polling's newest Louisiana poll finds Bill Cassidy with a slight lead over Mary Landrieu in a possible December runoff election, 48/45. The two
candidates had been tied at 47 on PPP's last look at the race in late June. Neither candidate is very popular with voters. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of Cassidy to 41% with an unfavorable opinion, numbers that while poor are actually slightly improved from a -8 net favorability rating on the previous poll at 28/36. Landrieu's approval numbers are worse though- 42% give her good marks to 52% who disapprove.
Those numbers are identical to what they were in late June. There has been a lot of speculation about how turnout might influence the dynamics in a
December runoff election, and on that front we find something that is at least a little disturbing for Democrats. 89% of likely voters for November also say that they will definitely vote in a runoff election if there is one. Among those voters Cassidy's lead expands to 50/45. Among the 11% of voters who say just they will probably vote, that the chances are 50/50, or that they will probably not vote Landrieu leads by 13 points at 40/27.
Landrieu does at least continue to have a clear lead in the November election. 42% of voters say they will support her to 34% for Bill Cassidy and 12% for Rob Maness with 2% saying they will support one of the other minor candidates in the race. Maness continues to be no real threat to Cassidy's chances of finishing in the top two.
Cassidy leads Landrieu in the runoff based on two key things: he leads with independents at 46/37, and he is also winning over 18% of Democrats compared to the 13% of Republicans Landrieu is getting. This race features about as large of a racial divide as we ever see- Cassidy is up 68/24 with white voters, while Landrieu leads 89/7 with African Americans.
“Our last three Louisiana polls have all found Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy within 3 points of each other,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But overall things have been creeping slightly in Cassidy’s direction.”

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Stephen Sabludowsky



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