A new Raycom poll is further evidence of her predicament in which she shows a 36-32% advantage over Cassidy in a three-person race, however, 23 percent are undecided. In a direct contest with the Republican Congressman, Landrieu would trail 46-43%.
With so much attention on the outcome, we asked pollster and political analyst Bernie Pinsonat of Southern Media and Opinion Research (SMOR) to provide insight as to the upcoming contest.
According to most objective polls, Mary Landrieu is falling behind and not much time left. What must she do to win?
Public opinion polls show Mary Landrieu is paying a big political price for supporting a very unpopular president and his policies. Disowning and or separating herself from President Obama might help with white voters, but would certainly decrease the turnout of black voters. Landrieu now finds herself between a rock and a hard place and stuck around forty percent.
I am sure by now everyone has noticed all attack ads picture Landrieu and Obama. Issues such as bringing pork back home, seniority and cutting social programs are not important to the majority of voters in this election!
How did Senator Landrieu and the Democrats miss the implications of David Vitter’s reelection? David Vitter said the same thing over and over in ten different ways. “I am opposed to anything and everything President Obama proposes related to his liberal agenda”. Democratic ads attacking Senator Vitter were a total waste of money. That election was not a referendum on Vitter – Vitter was reelected simply because he was most the trustworthy candidate to send to Washington to vote against President Obama.
On November 4th Louisiana voters will again vote based of this simple choice: send Landrieu back to Washington to vote with President Obama and the democrats or send Cassidy to Washington to vote against President Obama and the democrats. Literally nothing else matters – this anti Obama sentiment applies to every voter in Louisiana voting for a republican. The last best hope for Mary Landrieu continues to be a major screw up by Bill Cassidy.
Possible but unlikely also not impossible – Senator Landrieu next best hope was the Maness Campaign having lots of dollars to attack fellow his fellow republican Bill Cassidy. Drive Bill Cassidy’s numbers down and reelect Senator Landrieu. Rob Maness is one of these candidates who was born on 3rd base and now believes he hit a triple. Maness reminds us daily of his military background plus his Tea Party endorsement. An endorsement by a Sara Palin Tea Party Group does not mean big dollars or lots of voters. His home parish republican party endorsed Bill Cassidy – he was a member and they did not endorse him. Tea Party endorsement is worth numbers totaling in lower teens.
Most of the latest polls absolutely predict Mary Landrieu losing on November 4th if Maness was not on ballot. Republican should not count on Maness to get out and allow Cassidy win on November 4th – Maness thinks he is entitled! Here in Louisiana, columnists continue to falsely claim that Landrieu always trails in any poll and eventually comes from behind to win. Just the opposite is true: Mary Landrieu in her last two elections had huge leads going into last month (double digit plus) and then falls apart like a bad meat loaf. She ended up winning four points against underfunded republicans with splintered bases.
I am sure her campaign is now trying to produce new ads that attract additional middle class voters – any ad discussing more aid for poor or disadvantage a waste – she has them – up to turn out machine to get them to vote! Landrieu has always done fairly well with republican women - not this election, she is down to single digits. Losing these women is a big factor causing low poll numbers.
Her campaigns claims and hopes the democratic turnout machine will save her this time. Maybe so, but I would be more comfortable with better polling results. I get the feeling lots of white voters out there are super energized to get rid of Mary. Best news for Mary Landrieu is election still two weeks away.
What must Bill Cassidy do to keep his lead?
As of today just about every indicator is positive for Candidate Cassidy’s Campaign. Until November 4th Bill Cassidy should continue reminding voters Mary Landrieu supports President Obama and his policies. In remaining debate, ever answer should begin and end with the difference between him and his opponent – he is going to Washington D C to vote against President Obama. Travel with Senator Vitter making as many campaign appearances until Election Day. Cassidy is in the runoff – stay away from stupid answers that drift away from connecting Landrieu and Obama. Your voters do not care how you would balance the budget or even cut the budget.