Friday, 24 October 2014 14:45

Pinsonat: Angelle moves Vitter to right, Demos field, Edwards and whom?

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gov-mansionWhile most of the Louisiana's politicos' attention focus upon the US Senate race, there's another major election that is beginning to take shape--the Louisiana governor's race.  Bobby Jindal is term limited so, theoretically, the field is wide open.  We asked Bernie Pinsonat of Southern Media and Opinion Research to assess the gubernatorial field, to date:

  The governor's election is one year away.  David Vitter has been ahead in all polls, to date.  He has plenty of money in his state account and has a Super PAC that is sending money into that account.  Scott Angelle has recently announced his candidacy.  Do you see any other major candidates getting into the field?  If so, whom?

The addition of Scott Angelle into 2015 Governor’s Race caused the middle of road type voters to decrease dramatically. Angelle’s candidacy definitely pushes David Vitter’s campaign further to the right. With Jay Dardenne the only other republican running for governor, David Vitter had to attract more than just far right voters. David Vitter was certainly less conservative as he discussed positions on various issues shortly after announcing his candidacy for governor. If you give Vitter the vast majority of the right or very conservative voters, the middle is now much smaller. The more candidates running for governor, the more likely David Vitter will be in the runoff. John Kennedy’s decisions to run or not will be based on simple voter demographics. He cannot get to the right of David Vitter; Kennedy would be pushed to middle to compete with Dardenne and Angelle for a limited number of voters. Statewide campaigns with a democrat and several republicans always favor the most conservative republican to make runoff. The other candidates in the middle – we refer to as road kill! Most of us thought the 2015 governor’s race would produce lots of potential candidates, surely a congressman would run. Senator Vitter has a huge campaign account and lots of conservative voters, making him the early odds on favorite to win.

 Highly unlikely another republican will run – maybe John Kennedy. John Bell Edwards is the democratic candidate as of today. The democrat who eventually runs for governor is far from settled: we will not know for certain until Mitch Landrieu announces his intentions next year. Couple of rich democrats may also run – John George and Jim Bernhard each have fifteen million personal dollars to spend. The republican field of candidates is unlikely to change. This sounds kind of weird - it is the democratic side that will remain uncertain until at least next spring.      

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