Thursday, 14 May 2015 20:13

Pinsonat: Names helps Kennedy, Vitter dominates, Whites still vote GOP despite budget woes

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vitter-memoLouisiana is in the middle of a grueling legislative session, deep budget crises and statewide election season.  

Early this week, Southern Media and Opinion Research (SMOR) revealed its spring poll which showed David Vitter with a significant lead for governor and surprisingly, considering Louisiana has been a very conservative state, which indicates that Louisiana is resolved to pay more in taxes to improve its budgetary environment. 

Below is the second part of the interview with SMOR’s president, Bernie Pinsonat.  Also below are rough summaries of the interview segments.  You can click on the time stamp to listen to the any and/or all of the interview with Bayoubuzz Publisher Stephen Sabludowsky:


0:00 the Louisiana Republican Party is not really the ones who are being blamed or criticized for the budget issues nor is Vitter considering his opposition to stimulus money and bailout

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0:37 Louisiana is a red state and the voters would prefer budget gimmicks rather than raising taxes until they begin to feel the pain

2:08 One of our polls even the Republicans are angry about the cuts to health care; Jindal change the charity hospital system because of those prior public concerns

3:11 John Kennedy is the most popular statewide elected official but a significant reason is because of his name which is very popular among Democrats. Should he run for US Senator, he would not have the numbers in the 60s, would be about 54-55

4:03 No other republican is in the 60s and if Republican was in front of his (Kennedy’s) name he would not be in the 60s

4:16 The under 35 generation is not as oppose to same-sex marriage as the older voters, same sex marriages are not popular in Louisiana especially with whites and Republicans. The age factor crosses sex and race. Even Blacks over-35 were split on same-sex marriage so you have to factor in age and demographics

5:43 Discussion occurred about the Jindal's   advocating the religious freedom restoration act; The poll was of likely voters and with Jindal with slightly over 31% favorables of likely voters, the respondents of the poll tend to be older and more conservative. This is Jindal's best picture.

6:56 around 53% oppose common core but around 51% oppose Jindal's religious freedom Restoration Act.  The legislation has an undertone of civil rights infringements which is why African-Americans and others oppose it and why it does not have support among the younger generation. Opinions are based upon race age and party.

8:50 This poll is much different than past polls in particular to questions about whether voters will vote for taxes and the way this polls questions were asked

10:37 The poll shows great news for Vitter and he would have to suffer a catastrophic event to be within striking distance of his opponents John Bell Edwards, a Democrat is 14 points back which is a huge number. Vitter is very strong with white men voters which is his strength and it is very difficult for Jay Dardenne and Scott Angelle to pull away or to find white voters.  Vitter has sucked the air out in this race for white men and Republicans.  It is roadkill.  If the other Republicans got all of the rest of the white men and Republican voters it would still not make any difference.

13:41 Sabludowsky said when asked about the similarity with the governor race and the past U.S. Senate race (with neither  Vitter nor Mary Landrieu were able to get over 40%) if neither of Vitter’s two Republican opponents dropped there would likely be a runoff; Pinsonat referred to the question of which party would they favor for governor, it was Republican. Only 23% of whites are supporting democrats which is roughly the same number that is supporting Obama. John Bell Edwards is also getting 23% of the white vote, that number is consistent. That number is likely the reason that Mitch Landrieu decided not to run for governor.  Right now, in a statewide election, the ceiling for whites supporting democrats is 23%, which is about what Mary Landrieu received and the current president received. The reason for this finding is that whites in Louisiana tend to vote republican due to national issues, even during statewide elections. Whites in Louisiana who vote for Democrats tend to vote for local issues

 Part I: Pinsonat: Poll, Jindal fatigue, No new massive cuts

Bayoubuzz Staff

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